It Seems Like Things Are Actually Cooling Down Between Israel and Iran

A man walks past a banner depicting missiles along a street in Tehran, Iran, on Friday. AFP/Getty Images

A rare bit of calming news from the Middle East: It seems that neither Israel nor Iran wants to widen the war.

The odds of a direct conflict between the region’s two most powerful countries seemed high for much of this month. On April 1, Israel attacked Iran’s consulate in Syria, killing seven senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On April 13, Iran retaliated by launching a massive, multipronged attack—more than 300 missiles and drones, including 110 ballistic missiles—against Israel. Almost all the incoming weapons were shot down (a remarkable feat by U.S., Israeli, British, French, and Jordanian air defenses), no one was killed, and very little damage was sustained, and at just one air base. Still, the attack, which could have been deadly, marked the first time Iran had ever attacked Israeli territory. Israel felt the need to do something in response.

In the wee hours on Friday, three drones flew over an air base in the Isfahan district of southern Iran, not very far from a critical nuclear facility. Iran says they were all shot down. Maybe so, maybe not. The key facts are these: Israel has not acknowledged launching the drones—nor has Iran accused Israel of doing so. In fact, one senior Iranian official blamed the deed on “infiltrators” who fired the drones from inside Iran.

The point is, the widespread fears of mutual escalation—one airstrike sparking another, which sparks another, then another, on and on, for reasons of revenge, pride, a compulsion to “restore deterrence,” or whatever—have proved baseless, at least for now.

After the Saturday night air raid, an Iranian official warned Israel not to retaliate. Even a small Israeli attack, he said, would trigger a much more massive counterstrike from Tehran. President Biden urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to heed the warning. Most Israelis felt they had to do something to deter future Iranian attacks. They wound up doing about as little as a powerfully armed country can do while still doing something—and Iran pretended that Israel didn’t launch the attack anyway, thus evading their pledge to respond to any such attack massively.

In sum, Iran proved that it can mount a massive attack on Israel, while Israel proved that its weapons have the range to strike targets inside Iran. That seemed to be enough for both sides. The equilibrium has thus been restored, at least for now.

As of midday Friday, the Israeli government seemed content to go along with the game, declining to comment on the drone strike. An exception was Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultra-right-wing national security minister, who had pushed for a much more forceful response. “Lame!” he tweeted Friday morning in reference to the three-drone airstrike—thus acknowledging that Israel had launched the attack and that some senior officials wanted to do more. Netanyahu usually endorses Ben-Gvir’s radically hawkish statements, or at least doesn’t dispute them. But this time, Channel 12, Israel’s leading TV news station, reported that officials in the prime minister’s inner circle are very upset with the tweet, saying that it damaged Israel’s national security and slamming Ben-Gvir generally as “childish” and “irrelevant to any discussion.”

Meanwhile, the aftereffects of Iran’s attack last weekend continue to benefit Israel. On Wednesday, 48 countries signed a statement condemning Iran for its attack on Israel. The palpable sign of Israel’s continued vulnerability is also likely to boost approval of President Biden’s emergency military-aid package, which the House will take up on Saturday. Before the attack, many of those countries would have been reluctant to endorse any expression of support for Israel—and Biden’s aid package was losing support—as a result of Israel’s “over-the-top” military tactics (as even Biden called them) in Gaza.

The prospect of a major war between Iran and Israel distracted the world’s focus from the fighting and suffering in Gaza, but probably not for long. U.S. and Israeli officials remain locked in disagreement over how to rout the last battalion of Hamas terrorists from the town of Rafah on Gaza’s southern tip, where more than 1 million civilians—most of them refugees from the northern towns—are crowded, many of them starving. Netanyahu and the other members of his war Cabinet want to mount a major offensive against Rafah. Biden and his aides urge them not to take that step unless they come up with a way to avoid killing tens of thousands of the civilians. The Israelis have not come up with any such way. Nor have the Americans thought up a way to rout Hamas’ last battalion without an armed offensive.

This is why U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari diplomats continue to hammer out a plan for a cease-fire, combined with an exchange of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Hamas has rejected several proposals, most of them endorsed by Israel. Its one counteroffer—a cease-fire that delays the release of any hostages until all Israeli troops have withdrawn from Gaza—is unacceptable to Israel.

 Bitcoin just completed its fourth-ever 'halving,' here’s what investors need to watch now

The Bitcoin network on Friday night slashed the incentives rewarded to miners in half for the fourth time in its history.

The celebrated event, which takes place about once every four years as mandated in the Bitcoin code, is designed to slow the issuance of bitcoins, thereby creating a scarcity effect and allowing the cryptocurrency to maintain its digital gold-like quality.

There may be some speculative trading on the event itself. JPMorgan said it expects to see some downside in bitcoin post-halving and Deutsche Bank said it "does not expect prices to increase significantly." However, the impact may be bigger months from now, even if bitcoin continues its trend of diminishing returns from its halving day to its cycle top. Two key things to watch will be the block reward and the hash rate.

"While the upcoming Bitcoin halving will create a supply shock as the previous ones had, we believe its impact on the cryptocurrency's price could be magnified by the concurrent demand shock created by the emergence of spot bitcoin ETFs," said Benchmark's Mark Palmer.

The bigger immediate impact will be to the miners themselves, he added. They're the ones that run the machines that do the work of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.

"Miners with access to inexpensive, reliable power sources are well positioned to navigate the post-halving market dynamics," said Maxim's Matthew Galinko in a note Friday. "Some miners, many that are not public, could exit the market with a combination of poor access to power, efficient machines, and capital. Miners with capital and relatively expensive power will likely find opportunities in the wake of potential consolidation and disruption driven by the halving."

The block reward

Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 3.125 newly created bitcoins, or about $200,000 as of Friday evening, when the mining reward shrunk from 6.25 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins.

The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the Bitcoin code. There are about 19.6 million in circulation today.

"Miners utilize powerful, specialized computer hardware to validate transactions on the Bitcoin network and record them permanently on the blockchain," Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure said. "This process, known as mining, rewards miners with newly minted bitcoins. But with each halving, the reward to mining is decreased to maintain scarcity and control the cryptocurrency's inflation rate over time."

The hash rate

Historically after a halving, the Bitcoin hash rate – or the total computational power used by miners to process transactions on the Bitcoin network – has fallen, pricing some miners out of the market. It generally recovers in the medium term, however, Laboure pointed out.

The network hash rate has been hitting all-time highs for months as miners tried to take market share ahead of the halving. Growth in the Bitcoin hash rate dilutes individual miners' contribution to the network hash rate.

"In the past three halvings, the network recovered its pre-halving hash rate levels within an average of 57 days," she said. "It is also likely that the current elevated prices of bitcoin may limit this short-term dip in the hash rate, as bitcoin miners enjoy record high profits in the lead-up to the halving."

Palmer said the impact of the halving on bitcoin miners' economics could be "more than offset over time" if bitcoin's price rallies keep pushing the cryptocurrency to new highs in the months ahead.

 ‘It’s Clearly Bleak’: Stocks Notch Longest Losing Streak in Months

A rally at the start of the year has given way to worries on Wall Street about economics and geopolitics.

Stocks suffered their longest losing streak of the year, as geopolitical turmoil rattled Wall Street and investors slashed their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon.

The S&P 500 fell 0.9 percent on Friday, its sixth consecutive decline, marking its worst run since October 2022.

The slide dragged the S&P 500 down by just over 3 percent for the week, a third straight weekly decline. By that measure, it is the longest weekly losing streak for the index since September, when concerns over rising government debt and a potential government shutdown compounded worries about the effects of high interest rates.

Those fears dissipated toward the end of last year as inflation cooled and investors began to bet that the Fed would soon cut rates, prompting a ferocious stock rally in the first three months of 2024.

But this month, worries that stubborn inflation would lead the Fed to keep rates high have returned, compounded by the widening conflict in the Middle East, with Israel striking Iran early on Friday.

“It’s clearly bleak,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities.

Investors have pulled roughly $21 billion out of funds that invest in U.S. stocks over the two weeks through Wednesday, according to data from EPFR Global, which tracks fund flows. That compares to an inflow of around $80 billion for the year through early April. And the unease is not just apparent in the stock market.

U.S. government bond yields, which underpin interest rates for a wide variety of loans, have been rising. The average rate on 30-year mortgages, the most popular home loan in the United States, rose above 7 percent on Thursday for the first time this year.

The dollar is also markedly higher, putting pressure on countries that import goods from the United States and issue dollar-denominated debt. And oil prices, stoked by geopolitical tensions, are up more than 13 percent since the start of the year.

“There is nothing that looks good right now,” Mr. Brenner said.

Recent reports showing hotter-than-expected inflation have altered investors’ forecasts for the Fed, which has kept its key rate near a two-decade high. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event in Washington on Tuesday.

Economists at Société Générale no longer expect the Fed to cut rates this year. BNP Paribas and Wells Fargo economists have also dialed down their expectations for cuts.

Traders in futures markets, which allow investors to bet on where interest rates are headed, are wagering on one, and perhaps two, quarter-point cuts by the end of the year. At the start of the year, traders were expecting six cuts over that period.

At first, the shift appeared to be welcomed by stock investors. A strong economy, all else equal, is good for the stock market, and while some inflation data had started to buck the trend earlier this year it wasn’t enough to disrupt the broader cooling that took hold in 2023. But recent inflation reports have continued to disappointed investors and economists and become harder to ignore.

John Williams, the president of the New York Fed, said this week that it was possible that another increase, rather than a cut, to rates might be warranted if inflation remained sticky, even if that wasn’t what he considered the most likely scenario. Other officials have noted that the Fed may have to wait until much later this year, or even 2025, to begin easing rates.

So far, worries have yet to intensify to the point of threatening the strength of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 has fallen 5.5 percent this month, it remains more than 4 percent higher for the year.

And a recent survey of fund managers around the world by Bank of America showed the most optimism since January 2022, with respondents expecting global growth to accelerate. The biggest risk, according to the respondents, is a rise in inflation that could keep interest rates elevated, squeezing growth abroad and at home.

‘Playing with fire’: Ukraine’s frustration grows with US lawmakers, Europe

 ‘Playing with fire’: Ukraine’s frustration grows with US lawmakers, Europe

Ukraine is raising its standing army by 300,000, as the US stumbles and the EU lacks capacity to defend a future member.

Yuliia takes shelter inside a metro station with her daughter Varvara during a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attacks on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, April 11, 2024. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
Yuliia, a Ukrainian woman, takes shelter inside a metro station with her daughter Varvara during a Russian missile attack in Kyiv, Ukraine 

Athens, Greece – Frustration with the United States for holding back critical financial and military aid from Ukraine spilled into the open at the Delphi Economic Forum in Greece last week.

“The Russians are destroying Ukrainian power plants, which is a war crime, but unfortunately they’re getting away with it because as the collective West we have not supplied Ukraine with enough missiles,” Radoslaw Sikorski, the Polish former foreign and defence minister, told Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the meeting.

On the day he spoke to Al Jazeera, Russia unleashed a barrage of some 80 missiles that completely destroyed a thermal power plant in Kyiv, which supposedly has the best air defences in the country.