It Seems Like Things Are Actually Cooling Down Between Israel and Iran

A man walks past a banner depicting missiles along a street in Tehran, Iran, on Friday. AFP/Getty Images

A rare bit of calming news from the Middle East: It seems that neither Israel nor Iran wants to widen the war.

The odds of a direct conflict between the region’s two most powerful countries seemed high for much of this month. On April 1, Israel attacked Iran’s consulate in Syria, killing seven senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On April 13, Iran retaliated by launching a massive, multipronged attack—more than 300 missiles and drones, including 110 ballistic missiles—against Israel. Almost all the incoming weapons were shot down (a remarkable feat by U.S., Israeli, British, French, and Jordanian air defenses), no one was killed, and very little damage was sustained, and at just one air base. Still, the attack, which could have been deadly, marked the first time Iran had ever attacked Israeli territory. Israel felt the need to do something in response.

In the wee hours on Friday, three drones flew over an air base in the Isfahan district of southern Iran, not very far from a critical nuclear facility. Iran says they were all shot down. Maybe so, maybe not. The key facts are these: Israel has not acknowledged launching the drones—nor has Iran accused Israel of doing so. In fact, one senior Iranian official blamed the deed on “infiltrators” who fired the drones from inside Iran.

The point is, the widespread fears of mutual escalation—one airstrike sparking another, which sparks another, then another, on and on, for reasons of revenge, pride, a compulsion to “restore deterrence,” or whatever—have proved baseless, at least for now.

After the Saturday night air raid, an Iranian official warned Israel not to retaliate. Even a small Israeli attack, he said, would trigger a much more massive counterstrike from Tehran. President Biden urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to heed the warning. Most Israelis felt they had to do something to deter future Iranian attacks. They wound up doing about as little as a powerfully armed country can do while still doing something—and Iran pretended that Israel didn’t launch the attack anyway, thus evading their pledge to respond to any such attack massively.

In sum, Iran proved that it can mount a massive attack on Israel, while Israel proved that its weapons have the range to strike targets inside Iran. That seemed to be enough for both sides. The equilibrium has thus been restored, at least for now.

As of midday Friday, the Israeli government seemed content to go along with the game, declining to comment on the drone strike. An exception was Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultra-right-wing national security minister, who had pushed for a much more forceful response. “Lame!” he tweeted Friday morning in reference to the three-drone airstrike—thus acknowledging that Israel had launched the attack and that some senior officials wanted to do more. Netanyahu usually endorses Ben-Gvir’s radically hawkish statements, or at least doesn’t dispute them. But this time, Channel 12, Israel’s leading TV news station, reported that officials in the prime minister’s inner circle are very upset with the tweet, saying that it damaged Israel’s national security and slamming Ben-Gvir generally as “childish” and “irrelevant to any discussion.”

Meanwhile, the aftereffects of Iran’s attack last weekend continue to benefit Israel. On Wednesday, 48 countries signed a statement condemning Iran for its attack on Israel. The palpable sign of Israel’s continued vulnerability is also likely to boost approval of President Biden’s emergency military-aid package, which the House will take up on Saturday. Before the attack, many of those countries would have been reluctant to endorse any expression of support for Israel—and Biden’s aid package was losing support—as a result of Israel’s “over-the-top” military tactics (as even Biden called them) in Gaza.

The prospect of a major war between Iran and Israel distracted the world’s focus from the fighting and suffering in Gaza, but probably not for long. U.S. and Israeli officials remain locked in disagreement over how to rout the last battalion of Hamas terrorists from the town of Rafah on Gaza’s southern tip, where more than 1 million civilians—most of them refugees from the northern towns—are crowded, many of them starving. Netanyahu and the other members of his war Cabinet want to mount a major offensive against Rafah. Biden and his aides urge them not to take that step unless they come up with a way to avoid killing tens of thousands of the civilians. The Israelis have not come up with any such way. Nor have the Americans thought up a way to rout Hamas’ last battalion without an armed offensive.

This is why U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari diplomats continue to hammer out a plan for a cease-fire, combined with an exchange of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Hamas has rejected several proposals, most of them endorsed by Israel. Its one counteroffer—a cease-fire that delays the release of any hostages until all Israeli troops have withdrawn from Gaza—is unacceptable to Israel.

 Bitcoin just completed its fourth-ever 'halving,' here’s what investors need to watch now

The Bitcoin network on Friday night slashed the incentives rewarded to miners in half for the fourth time in its history.

The celebrated event, which takes place about once every four years as mandated in the Bitcoin code, is designed to slow the issuance of bitcoins, thereby creating a scarcity effect and allowing the cryptocurrency to maintain its digital gold-like quality.

There may be some speculative trading on the event itself. JPMorgan said it expects to see some downside in bitcoin post-halving and Deutsche Bank said it "does not expect prices to increase significantly." However, the impact may be bigger months from now, even if bitcoin continues its trend of diminishing returns from its halving day to its cycle top. Two key things to watch will be the block reward and the hash rate.

"While the upcoming Bitcoin halving will create a supply shock as the previous ones had, we believe its impact on the cryptocurrency's price could be magnified by the concurrent demand shock created by the emergence of spot bitcoin ETFs," said Benchmark's Mark Palmer.

The bigger immediate impact will be to the miners themselves, he added. They're the ones that run the machines that do the work of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.

"Miners with access to inexpensive, reliable power sources are well positioned to navigate the post-halving market dynamics," said Maxim's Matthew Galinko in a note Friday. "Some miners, many that are not public, could exit the market with a combination of poor access to power, efficient machines, and capital. Miners with capital and relatively expensive power will likely find opportunities in the wake of potential consolidation and disruption driven by the halving."

The block reward

Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 3.125 newly created bitcoins, or about $200,000 as of Friday evening, when the mining reward shrunk from 6.25 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins.

The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the Bitcoin code. There are about 19.6 million in circulation today.

"Miners utilize powerful, specialized computer hardware to validate transactions on the Bitcoin network and record them permanently on the blockchain," Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure said. "This process, known as mining, rewards miners with newly minted bitcoins. But with each halving, the reward to mining is decreased to maintain scarcity and control the cryptocurrency's inflation rate over time."

The hash rate

Historically after a halving, the Bitcoin hash rate – or the total computational power used by miners to process transactions on the Bitcoin network – has fallen, pricing some miners out of the market. It generally recovers in the medium term, however, Laboure pointed out.

The network hash rate has been hitting all-time highs for months as miners tried to take market share ahead of the halving. Growth in the Bitcoin hash rate dilutes individual miners' contribution to the network hash rate.

"In the past three halvings, the network recovered its pre-halving hash rate levels within an average of 57 days," she said. "It is also likely that the current elevated prices of bitcoin may limit this short-term dip in the hash rate, as bitcoin miners enjoy record high profits in the lead-up to the halving."

Palmer said the impact of the halving on bitcoin miners' economics could be "more than offset over time" if bitcoin's price rallies keep pushing the cryptocurrency to new highs in the months ahead.

 In a Manhattan Court, a Jury Is Picked to Judge a President

Justice Juan M. Merchan warned against identifying the people who might judge Donald J. Trump, who regularly attacks the justice system.

Prosecutors have asked that Donald J. Trump be punished for promoting attacks on the jury system and the court.Credit...Pool photo by Brendan McDermid

At 4:34 p.m. on Thursday, a jury of 12 citizens was selected to determine the fate of an indicted former president for the first time in American history, a moment that could shape the nation’s political and legal landscapes for generations to come.

The dozen New Yorkers will sit in judgment of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president turned criminal defendant, who has been accused of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal. If the jurors convict Mr. Trump, he could face up to four years in prison, even as he seeks to reclaim the White House as the presumptive Republican nominee.

“We have our jury,” Justice Juan M. Merchan proclaimed as the 12th juror was added.

He then swore the seven men and five women to an oath that they would render a fair and impartial verdict, which they accepted with sober expressions as Mr. Trump stared from the defense table. The jurors could hear opening arguments as soon as Monday.

The selection of the 12 capped a seesaw day in which the judge first excused two people who had been seated earlier in the week, and then hours later replaced them with two new faces and more.

The moment was both routine and never before seen, an act performed every day in courthouses around the country, but never for a former president, a symbol and source of the nation’s political divide.

Mr. Trump, under the Constitution, is entitled to a fair trial by a jury of his peers. And yet he is peerless, a singular force in American politics who was twice impeached and brought democracy to the brink when he refused to accept his election defeat.

Now, just as he bent the political world to his will, Mr. Trump is testing the limits of the American justice system, assailing the integrity of jury and judge alike. His attacks have emboldened his base, and might well resonate more broadly on the campaign trial.

But it will be the 12 men and women of the jury — in Mr. Trump’s hometown — who will first decide his fate, before millions more do so at the polls.

The jury’s makeup and the security of its members will be central to the landmark case. Mr. Trump claims he cannot receive a fair trial in one of the nation’s most Democratic counties, a place where he is deeply unpopular, though some of the jurors who ultimately landed on the panel praised him.

One man said during the selection that he believed the former president had done some good for the country, adding, “it goes both ways.” Another juror, in a possible first for the country, said he didn’t have an opinion on Mr. Trump.

The final 12 were a collection of Manhattanites as eclectic as the city itself. They are Black, Asian, white, male, female, middle-aged and young, including one woman in her first job out of college. They work in finance, education, health care and the law. And they live, among other places, in Harlem, Chelsea, the Upper East Side and Murray Hill.

One alternate was also picked before court adjourned. The judge plans to conclude jury selection on Friday, when the lawyers will select the remaining five alternates.

The long day got off to an inauspicious start as Justice Merchan excused the two jurors, including a woman who had developed concerns about her identity being revealed. That fear, she added, might compromise her fairness and “decision-making in the courtroom,” prompting the judge to excuse her.

The precise reason the judge dismissed the other juror was not clear, but prosecutors had raised concerns about the credibility of answers he had given to questions about himself. Asked outside the courthouse whether he believed he should have been dismissed, the man, who declined to give his name, replied, “Nope.”

The dismissals underscored the intense pressure of serving on this particular panel. Jurors are risking their safety and their privacy to sit in judgment of a former commander in chief who is now their fellow citizen, a heavy responsibility that could unnerve even the most seen-it-all New Yorkers.

During jury selection, prospective members are routinely excused by the dozens. And once a trial formally begins, it is not unheard-of to lose a juror for reasons such as illness or violating a judge’s order not to read about the proceeding. But losing two in one day, before opening arguments even began, was unusual — one of many small ways in which this trial will stand apart.

The ousters appeared to rankle the judge, who has striven to keep the trial on schedule. He said he thought the woman who declined to serve would have “been a very good juror.”

Although the judge has kept prospective jurors’ names private, they disclosed their employers and other identifying information in open court. But Justice Merchan instructed reporters to no longer divulge prospective jurors’ current or past employers, a decision that some media law experts questioned.

Inside a chilly courtroom on Thursday, as lawyers on both sides scrutinized a new round of prospective jurors, Mr. Trump stared intently at the jury box and prodded his lawyers, prompting one, Todd Blanche, to shake his head in response.

 UK set to ban tobacco sales for a ‘smoke-free’ generation. Will it work?

The UK’s smoking ban aims to phase out sales of tobacco, which is one of the main causes of cancer deaths in Britain.

A woman smokes in Trafalgar Square in central London [File: Toby Melville/Reuters]

Britain is set to impose tough measures to stub out smoking, which has emerged as one of the biggest causes of cancer deaths in the country.

Parliament approved the government’s “historic” plans to create a “smoke-free” generation on Tuesday in a bid to reduce the number of people dying from smoking-related diseases, a big burden on the country’s publicly funded National Health Service (NHS).

 Dubai flooding hobbles major airport's operations as "historic weather event" brings torrential rains to UAE

Dubai, United Arab Emirates — The desert nation of the United Arab Emirates attempted to dry out Wednesday from the heaviest rain ever recorded there after a deluge flooded out Dubai International Airport, disrupting travel through the world's busiest airfield for international travel. The state-run WAM news agency called the rain Tuesday "a historic weather event" that surpassed "anything documented since the start of data collection in 1949." 

The rains began late Monday, soaking the sands and roadways of Dubai with some 0.79 inches of rain, according to meteorological data collected at Dubai International Airport. The storms intensified around 9 a.m. local time Tuesday and continued throughout the day, dumping more rain and hail onto the overwhelmed city.

Flooding impacts Dubai International Airport

By the end of Tuesday, more than 5.59 inches of rainfall had soaked Dubai over 24 hours. An average year sees just 3.73 inches of rain fall at Dubai International Airport, a hub for the long-haul carrier Emirates.

At the airport, standing water lapped on taxiways as aircraft landed. Arrivals were halted Tuesday night and passengers struggled to reach terminals through the floodwater covering surrounding roads.

TOPSHOT-UAE-BAHRAIN-OMAN-WEATHER-FLOOD 
Motorisits drive along a flooded street following heavy rains in Dubai, early on April 17, 2024.

The airport said in a series of social media posts that all operations were halted for about 25 minutes on Tuesday afternoon and that all arrivals would be diverted after that "until the weather conditions improve." Late Wednesday morning, the airport and the flagship carrier Emirates were still warning travelers not to come to the airport unless absolutely necessary, saying all flight check-in was still suspended.

"Flights continue to be delayed and diverted. Please check your flight status directly with your airline," the airport said in a tweet. "We are working hard to recover operations as quickly as possible in very challenging conditions." 

One couple, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity in a country with strict laws that criminalize critical speech, called the situation at the airport "absolute carnage."

"You cannot get a taxi. There's people sleeping in the Metro station. There's people sleeping in the airport," the man said Wednesday.

They ended up getting a taxi to near their home some 18 miles away, but floodwater on the road stopped them. A bystander helped them over a highway barrier with their carry-on luggage, the bottles of gin they picked up from a duty-free store clinking away.

Passengers wait at a flight connection desk at Dubai International Airport, April 17, 2024, amid flight delays and cancelations caused by flash flooding brought by a historic rain storm.

Paul Griffiths, the airport's CEO, acknowledged continued issues with flooding Wednesday morning, saying every place an aircraft could be safely parked was taken. Some aircraft had been diverted to Al Maktoum International Airport at Dubai World Central, the city-state's second airfield.

"It remains an incredibly challenging time. In living memory, I don't think anyone has ever seen conditions like it," Griffiths told the state-owned talk radio station Dubai Eye. "We are in uncharted territory, but I can assure everyone we are working as hard as we possibly can to make sure our customers and staff are looked after."

Did "cloud-seeding" contribute?

Rain also fell in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. However, the rains were acute across the UAE. One reason may have been "cloud seeding," in which small planes flown by the government go through clouds burning special salt flares. Those flares can increase precipitation.

Several reports quoted meteorologists at the National Center for Meteorology as saying they flew six or seven cloud-seeding flights before the rains. The center did not immediately respond to questions Wednesday, though flight-tracking data analyzed by the AP showed one aircraft affiliated with the UAE's cloud-seeding efforts flew around the country Sunday.

The UAE, which relies heavily on energy-hungry desalination plants to provide water, conducts cloud seeding in part to increase its dwindling, limited groundwater.

Flooding closes schools across UAE

Schools across the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms, largely shut ahead of the storm and government employees were largely working remotely if they could. Many workers stayed home as well, though some ventured out, with the unfortunate ones stalling out their vehicles in deeper-than-expected water covering some roads.

Cars are seen on a flooded street during a rainstorm in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, April 16, 2024.

Authorities sent tanker trucks out into the streets and highways to pump away the water. Water poured into some homes, forcing people to bail out their houses.

The country's hereditary rulers offered no overall damage or injury information for the nation, as some people slept in their flooded vehicles Tuesday night. In Ras al-Khaimah, the country's northernmost emirate, police said a 70-year-old man died when his vehicle was swept away by floodwater.

Fujairah, an emirate on the UAE's eastern coast, saw the heaviest rainfall Tuesday with 5.7 inches falling there.

Authorities canceled school and the government instituted remote work again for Wednesday.

Rain is unusual in the UAE, an arid, Arabian Peninsula nation, but occurs periodically during the cooler winter months. Many roads and other areas lack drainage given the lack of regular rainfall, causing flooding.

Meanwhile in neighboring Oman, a sultanate that rests on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, at least 19 people were killed in heavy rains in recent days, according to a statement Wednesday from the country's National Committee for Emergency Management. That includes some 10 schoolchildren swept away in a vehicle with an adult, prompting condolences from rulers across the region.

 Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 posts a fourth losing day: Live updates

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. 

Stock futures traded near the flatline on Wednesday evening after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite logged a fourth straight day of losses.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.04%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were little changed.

In extended trading, credit bureau Equifax declined more than 9% on disappointing second-quarter guidance that missed Wall Street estimates. Shares of Las Vegas Sands slipped nearly 3% after first-quarter revenue narrowly beat analysts' forecasts.

Tech stocks struggled on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite registering their fourth consecutive losing session. Nvidia pulled both indexes lower, as the artificial intelligence play dropped nearly 4%. The 30-stock Dow fell for its seventh session in eight.

Wednesday's market pullback adds to a more difficult second quarter on Wall Street. All three major indexes are lower so far in April, in stark contrast to the stronger-than-expected market performance seen in the first quarter. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have also closed below their respective 50-day moving averages.

"The initial support for the S&P on that breakdown was 5000 or just below," JPMorgan head of technical strategy Jason Hunter said on "Closing Bell" Wednesday. "Now the question is: Does a bounce develop from there … and if it does, is it able to get back above the breakdown levels — the 50-day moving average, the area where it gapped down from?" He said he's watching the 5,150 to 5,200 level of the S&P 500 as key resistance.

On the economic front, initial jobless claims data will be due on Thursday morning, and the existing home sales report for March is also out.

Earnings season also heats up with Alaska Air Group and KeyCorp reporting results before the bell, followed by Netflix in the afternoon.

SM-3 Ballistic Missile Interceptor Used for First Time in Combat, Officials Confirm

 SM-3 Ballistic Missile Interceptor Used for First Time in Combat, Officials Confirm

On Nov. 16, U.S. Missile Defense Agency and Navy sailors aboard USS John Finn (DDG 113), an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System-equipped destroyer, fired a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA guided missile that successfully intercepted and destroyed a mock Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) during a flight test demonstration in the broad ocean area northeast of Hawaii in November 2020. MDA photo.

For the first time in combat, guided-missile destroyers fired missiles developed to intercept ballistic missiles during the U.S. response to the Iranian attack on Israel, USNI News has learned.

USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) and USS Carney (DDG-64), in the Eastern Mediterranean, fired four to seven Standard Missile 3s to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles headed toward Israeli targets over the weekend, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Monday.

Carney and Arleigh Burke have versions of the Aegis combat system that were modified to track and target ballistic missiles. The SPY-1D radar on the destroyers cues the SM-3 to attack the ballistic missile. The SM-3 transports a kill vehicle outside the atmosphere to intercept a ballistic missile near the height of its path from its launch point before it reenters the atmosphere to hit its target.

Both the destroyers were placed off the coast of Israel as part of the defensive measures against a Iranian strike in retaliation for an Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy in Syria.

It’s unclear what missiles the Iranians fired toward Israel, but, according to missile analyst Chris Carlson, the fact the Navy used SM-3s points to the likelihood the Iranians used some of its medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1,800 miles.

First deployed in early 2004 on U.S. cruisers and destroyers, the SM-3s have been part of the U.S. ballistic missile defense network across the world. In 2011, the U.S. announced it would deploy four U.S. BMD destroyers in Rota as part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach to BMD along with missile defense sites based on the Aegis technology in Poland and Romania that also use SM-3s. The EPAA was specifically created during the Obama administration to protect Europe from Iranian ballistic missiles.

Burke is currently part of the U.S. destroyer contingent in Rota, and Carney had previously been stationed there as part of the mission. Likewise, BMD destroyers and cruisers patrol near Japan and South Korea as a hedge against potential North Korean ballistic missile attacks.

While variants of the missile have been in use for more than two decades and have undergone a wide range of tests, they have never been used in a real-world situation.

“Until you use it in combat, there are always questions,” Carlson told USNI News .

 

Trump Media Stock Plunges, Extending Recent Losses

 Trump Media Stock Plunges, Extending Recent Losses

Funds that bet on a fall were set to profit as the parent of Truth Social came under renewed pressure after it registered new shares for a potential sale.

Since former President Donald J. Trump’s company, Trump Media & Technology, began trading, its shares have fallen by about 60 percent.Credit...Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times

Shares of former President Donald J. Trump’s social media company plunged on Monday after the company filed to register the potential sale of tens of millions of additional shares.

Trump Media & Technology’s stock fell 18.3 percent, erasing hundreds of millions of dollars from the company’s market value — and putting a dent in Mr. Trump’s majority stake. Since a surge in its first days of trading as Trump Media, which lifted the value of the company to about $8 billion at one point last month, the company’s shares have dropped by around 60 percent.

Trump Media was expected to register the potential sale of new shares after the completion of its merger last month with Digital World Acquisition Corp., a cash-rich shell company known as a SPAC. Companies that merge with SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, typically file a registration statement a few weeks after the deal is completed for the sale of additional securities held by early investors.

Matthew Goldstein covers Wall Street and white-collar crime and housing issues. More about Matthew Goldstein

Joe Rennison writes about financial markets, a beat that ranges from chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders. More about Joe Rennison

70 million Americans under severe weather threat from Northeast to Midwest

 70 million Americans under severe weather threat from Northeast to Midwest

From Sunday through Tuesday, hail, winds and a few tornados are possible.

Andrew Spear/Getty ImagesThe aftermath of tornados that came through the region in Indian Lake

Severe weather is projected to impact 70 million Americans from the Northeast Sunday through to Tuesday in the Midwest.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk outlook for the multi-region storm system, designating it a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather.

In the Northeast, intense thunderstorms are likely to develop late Sunday afternoon in a corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into the Pocono Mountains in Pennsylvania and the Catskill region in Upstate New York.

Damaging wind, some hail and tornadoes are possible as the storm spreads slowly southward into Sunday evening.

ABC NewsSevere risk forecast for Sunday evening.

A line of these strong to potentially severe storms is projected to impact cities from Pittsburgh to New York Sunday night from 10:00 p.m. ET to 11:00 p.m. ET.

In the Midwest, a dynamic weather system across the Rockies and into the Great Plains from the Dakotas to Texas has the potential to form storms capable of becoming supercells and produce very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on Monday.

ABC NewsSevere weather outbreak forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening when large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible.

Storms may begin as early as 5:00 p.m. CT from Central Texas to Nebraska and then continue to develop overnight across the region.

By Tuesday morning, storms are projected to impact regions from eastern Nebraska to Kansas City, Missouri, and parts of Iowa. These storms may still be strong and possibly severe.

The strongest storms are anticipated in areas from Des Moines, Iowa, to Columbia, Missouri, on Tuesday afternoon.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into the evening from Chicago to east of Dallas.

On Wednesday morning, there may be lingering strong to severe storms in the Ohio River Valley.

Gold and Silver Weather the Storm as Middle East Unrest Shakes Crypto Markets

 Gold and Silver Weather the Storm as Middle East Unrest Shakes Crypto Markets

Over the weekend, cryptocurrency assets saw a significant drop, with the crypto economy shedding more than 5% to fall to $2.3 trillion, while precious metals also saw declines, albeit less severe than the digital currency sector. Amidst the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, gold fell by 1.18% in the last day; however, in contrast to bitcoin, it has appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the past week. Furthermore, recent survey data suggest that investors hold an optimistic view of gold for the coming week.

Gold Holds Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Recent Survey Highlights Ongoing Bullish Sentiment

On Saturday, tensions escalated as Iran conducted a drone airstrike against Israel, wiping out over $330 billion from the value of the crypto market. Data indicate that BTC dropped 6.9% over the last week due to the weekend’s downturn. The downturn in the crypto market is largely linked to the Iran-Israel conflict, and U.S. equities are anticipated to experience some impact on Monday. Precious metals, however, experienced only minor losses in comparison to BTC and ETH.

Price of gold on Sunday, April 14, 2024

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Gold remains 0.6% higher for the week despite a 1.18% decrease in the last 24 hours. Silver has declined by more than 2% during the past day, yet weekly figures show that silver is still up by 1.36%. Over the past six months, both precious metals have climbed more than 21%, and despite bitcoin’s downturn, it still posted a 124% gain over the same period. This week’s Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey reveals that investors in Wall Street and Main Street’s precious metals remain bullish, noting that “geopolitical risks” may act as support rather than hinder gains.

The day before the attack, Frank McGhee from Alliance Financial addressed the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel with Kitco, remarking, “The best component that I can see now is that the market is finally paying attention to geopolitical, and as the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel looms, the market has finally just decided to take notice.” During the cryptocurrency downturn on Saturday, metrics further indicate that traders not only sought refuge in U.S. dollar stablecoins, but also gravitated toward gold tokens such as Tether’s XAUT and Paxos’s PAXG, which both experienced notable increases.

Specifically, PAXG soared to $2,855 per coin on Saturday, drawing considerable interest following the public announcement of the drone airstrike at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. While the substantial premium on PAXG has diminished, it maintains a $100 premium over the current gold spot prices. Meanwhile, the premium observed with XAUT was less pronounced, yet it still stands at $25 above the gold spot price as of Sunday afternoon.

What do you think about gold and silver weathering the storm amid the Middle East conflict between Iran and Israel? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.

Iran launches barrage of strikes toward Israel

 Iran launches barrage of strikes toward Israel

What we covered:

🔸The Middle East has been plunged deeper into uncharted waters after Iran launched dozens of missiles and drones from its territory toward Israel in an unprecedented five-hour strike.

🔸The vast majority of missiles were intercepted outside Israel's territory by aerial defense systems, its military said. There have been no reports of injuries suffered directly through Iranian strikes, according to Israel’s emergency service.

🔸Iran's foreign ministry said the attack was in retaliation to a deadly Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month.

🔸President Joe Biden made clear US will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, according to a senior administration official. But he said Washington's commitment to Israel’s security against Iranian threats remains "ironclad."

🔸US forces intercepted more than 70 drones and at least three ballistic missiles, according to US officials. The US assessment is that Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful.

🔸Here's how to help humanitarian efforts in Gaza and Israel.

Iran warns its response will be "stronger and more resolute" if Israel retaliates following latest strikes

Iran has warned that it will respond with more force if Israel retaliates over this weekend's strikes, which Tehran said were themselves a reply to an Israeli attack earlier this month on its embassy complex in Syria's capital Damascus.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent right of self-defense when required," Iran’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, said in a statement.

 

Should the Israeli regime commit any military aggression again, Iran's response will assuredly and decisively be stronger and more resolute,” Ambassador Iravani added.

Citing self-defense against repeated Israeli military aggressions, Iravani said the strikes were specifically in retaliation to an Israeli attack on April 1 against what Iran says were diplomatic facilities in Damascus.

Iran claims the attack violated international law and led to the death of seven Iranian military advisors, including key commanders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The statement also criticizes the United Nations Security Council for “failing to uphold international peace,” allowing Israel to “breach” established international norms and “escalate” regional tensions.

Additional context: Israel has carried out numerous strikes on Iran-backed targets in Syria, often targeting weapons shipments allegedly intended for Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian proxy in Lebanon. 

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the April 1 attack which destroyed an Iranian consulate building in the capital Damascus, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top Revolutionary Guards commander.

However an Israel Defense Forces spokesman told CNN that their intelligence showed the building was not a consulate and was instead “a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building.”

China expresses 'deep concern', calls for ceasefire

China has expressed "deep concern" over the "current escalation" following Iran's attack on Israel, according to a spokesperson for its Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday, adding that it is a "spillover of the Gaza conflict" and a ceasefire should be implemented without delay.

In a statement, China called "on relevant parties to exercise calm and restraint to prevent further escalations."

"The ongoing situation is the latest spillover of the Gaza conflict," the spokesperson said, adding that a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas should be implemented without any more delay.

Beijing did not name or condemn Hamas in the wake of the initial October 7 attacks. Since then, it has condemned the war and been a vocal proponent of an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of a “two-state” solution.

Last month, Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian met Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar, the first meeting between a Chinese and Hamas official publicly acknowledged by Beijing since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

Wang’s visit follows efforts by Beijing to step up its profile as a peace broker in the Middle East conflict.

Airspace closures throughout the Middle East ground, divert flights as Iran launches drone attack on Israel

 Airspace closures throughout the Middle East ground, divert flights as Iran launches drone attack on Israel

KEY POINTS

🔸United Airlines and other carriers were affected by the airspace closure.

🔸Israel and Jordan closed airspace as Iran launched a drone strike on Israel, according to U.S. officials.

🔸Iran has said it would retaliate against Israel for a airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Flightradar24 over the Middle East on April 14th, 2024 after Iran launched drone strikes towards Israel.

Flightradar24 over the Middle East on April 14th, 2024 after Iran launched drone strikes towards Israel.

Airspace closures through the Middle East grounded and diverted flights on Saturday as Iran launched drones toward Israel.

United Airlines, which resumed service to Tel Aviv early last month after suspending Israel flights after the Hamas attacks in October, called off its Newark to Tel Aviv flight on Saturday after Israel closed its airspace. Jordan and Iraq had also closed their airspace, according to Jordanian state-owned media news outlet Al Mamlaka.

"We are closely monitoring the situation and will make decisions on upcoming flights with a focus on the safety of our customers and crews," United said in a statement. The carrier is the only U.S. airline to have resumed service to Israel since October. Delta was scheduled to restart flights to Tel Aviv on June. 7. American Airlines has not resumed Israel service.

United also canceled its flight from Washington Dulles International Airport to Amman, Jordan on Saturday night, "due to unrest in the Middle East." United also canceled its Newark-Dubai flight on Sunday.

It was not clear when flights would resume.

Some flights avoided large swaths of airspace in the Middle East, reroutes that delayed some planes, Swiss International Airlines said.

Flight-tracking site Flightradar24 said multiple flights bound for Tel Aviv and Amman had diverted on Saturday.

Airlines also canceled service scheduled for Sunday. Israel's El Al cancelled more than 20 Sunday flights. Two El Al flights headed for Israel from Thailand diverted to Bangkok. The carrier told passengers not to come to the airport until notified.

Emirates Airline canceled its Dubai-Amman flight scheduled for Sunday. Air France's Israel service was canceled for Sunday and British Airways canceled its two flights to Tel Aviv on Sunday and scrubbed a flight to Amman. Lufthansa also canceled its service to Israel.

NASA unveils probe bound for Jupiter's possibly life-sustaining moon

 NASA unveils probe bound for Jupiter's possibly life-sustaining moon

NASA's Europa Clipper Spacecraft is headed for one of Jupiter's moons to see if it has the right conditions to sustain life.
US space scientists on Thursday unveiled the interplanetary probe NASA plans to send to one of Jupiter's icy moons as part of humanity's hunt for extra-terrestrial life.

The Clipper spacecraft is due to blast off in October bound for Europa, one of dozens of moons orbiting the solar system's biggest planet, and the nearest spot in our celestial neighborhood that could offer a perch for life.

"One of the fundamental questions that NASA wants to understand is, are we alone in the cosmos?" Bob Pappalardo, the mission's project scientist told AFP.

"If we were to find the conditions for life, and then someday actually find life in a place like Europa, then that would say in our own solar system there are two examples of life: Earth and Europa.

"That would be huge for understanding how common life might be throughout the universe."

The $5 billion probe is currently at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, sitting in a "clean room"—a sealed area only accessible to people wearing head-to-toe covering.

The precautions are to ensure the probe remains free of contaminants to avoid transporting Earthly microbes to Europa.

After transport to Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Clipper is set to launch aboard a Space X Falcon Heavy rocket and begin an over-five-year journey that involves a pass by Mars to pick up speed.

In 2031, it should be in orbit around Jupiter and Europa, where it will begin a detailed study of the moon scientists believe is covered in frozen water.

"We have instruments like cameras, and spectrometers, a magnetometer and a radar that can... penetrate right through ice, bounce off liquid water and back to the surface to tell us how thick is the ice and where is liquid water located," Pappalardo said.

Mission managers do not expect to find little green men swimming in the water—in fact, they're not even looking for life itself, only for the conditions that could support it.

Scientists know from extreme environments on Earth—like light-starved geothermal vents located deep under the polar ice cap—that tiny beings can find purchase almost anywhere.

And conditions on Europa, which is almost as large as Earth's moon, could provide a similar habitat, offering the tantalizing prospect we are not alone—not even in our own solar system.

"If moons around planets far away from stars could hold life, then the number of opportunities around the solar system, around the universe, where life could take hold, I think goes up dramatically," said Jordan Evans, project manager for the Europa Clipper mission.

Challenges

The science is not easy—a powerful radiation field around Europa could degrade the instruments, which will be getting the equivalent of 100,000 chest X-rays every circuit around the moon.

The vast distances involved mean that when Clipper sends its data back, the signal will take 45 minutes to arrive at Mission Control.

And despite its massive solar array, which unfurls once in space, keeping Clipper powered will be a major challenge, Evans said.

"Right after launch, (the solar panels are) putting out 23,000 watts... but when we're out at Jupiter, so far away from the sun, they're only putting out 700 watts," he said.

"Near Earth, they could power 20 houses continuously. And when we're at Jupiter, just a few light bulbs and some small appliances."

The mission, planning for which began in the late 1990s, is expected to conclude around 2034, when Clipper will likely have reached the end of its useful life.

The probe will then have one final port of call: Jupiter's largest moon, deputy project manager Tim Larson said.

"After we're done with the science mission, the way we end is by crashing into one of the other bodies in the Jovian system to dispose of the spacecraft," he said.

"Right now, the plan is to go into Ganymede."

Drug shortages reach record high in US

 Drug shortages reach record high in US

There are 323 drugs with active shortages in the US, surpassing the previous record high from 2014

There are more active drug shortages in the United States than ever, according to data from the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists and the University of Utah Drug Information Service.

FILE - In this May 25, 2017 file photo, chemotherapy drugs are administered to a patient at a hospital in Chapel Hill, N.C. A growing shortage of common cancer treatments is forcing doctors to switch medications and delaying care, prominent U.S. cancer centers say. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network said Wednesday, June 7, 2023, that nearly all the centers it surveyed in late May 2023 were dealing with shortages of the chemotherapies carboplatin and cisplatin. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Drug shortages may mean difference between life and death for some US patients, experts say

The organizations first started tracking drug shortages in 2001. Active shortages previously peaked in 2014, with 320 drugs in active shortage. Shortage levels have fluctuated in the decade since, but have been steadily trending up since 2021 — now reaching a record-high of 323 drugs in the first three months of 2024.

“It’s long past time to put an end to drug shortages,” Paul Abramowitz, chief executive officer of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, wrote in a blog post on Thursday.

“All drug classes are vulnerable to shortages,” he wrote. “Some of the most worrying shortages involve generic sterile injectable medications, including cancer chemotherapy drugs and emergency medications stored in hospital crash carts and procedural areas. Ongoing national shortages of therapies for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder also remain a serious challenge for clinicians and patients.”

Along with the 32 chemotherapy drugs that are in shortage, the five categories of drugs with the most shortages include central nervous system stimulants, antimicrobials, hormone agents and intravenous fluids.

The drug shortage database maintained by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists and the University of Utah is based on voluntary reports from practitioners, patients and others that are confirmed with manufacturers. This list often includes more drugs than the number considered to be in shortage by the US Food and Drug Administration because it captures broader impacts on providers and patients.

The average drug shortage lasts about a year and a half, according to government data. More than half of the treatment shortages have persisted for more than two years, according to an analysis by health consulting firm IQVIA. And the average shortage affects at least half a million patients, many of them older adults, according to the US Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, which shared its analysis with Congress in May.

Increased demand can play a role in drug shortages, as with recent shortages of weight loss drugs. But more often, manufacturing and quality problems, such as supply chain gaps and discontinuations, are at the root.

Last week, HHS published a white paper outlining policy suggestions to help prevent drug shortages and mitigate vulnerabilities. Among the key recommendations are collaborations with manufacturers and hospitals that aim to bring transparency to the drug market and incentivize investment in resilient and diverse supply chains.

But the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists has “serious concerns” about parts of this proposal, notably the financial penalties for hospitals that lack resources to comply with the recommendations.

“We all know that managing shortages isn’t enough and is not a sustainable solution to the worsening crisis,” Abramowitz wrote. “Much work remains to be done at the federal level to fix the root causes of drug shortages.”

Bitcoin Mining Braces For A Shakeout As Halving Nears

 Bitcoin Mining Braces For A Shakeout As Halving Nears

The approaching bitcoin halving is sending some bitcoin mining companies running for cover.

Others, meanwhile, are rushing out to score good deals.

"We're really paying attention to the full spectrum right now of assets and companies that might be more on that marginal cost curve so that we can ensure we're prepared for any types of opportunities that may arise," Adam Sullivan, CEO of bitcoin mining company Core Scientific (CORZ), told Investor's Business Daily.

Most industry watchers expect the reduced reward for bitcoin mining to push some out of the business. That, in turn, could lead to a glut of specialized mining hardware. "As those marginally profitable miners start to experience cash-flow issues, it can be a great opportunity for Core Scientific to buy machines at discounted prices," said Sullivan.

Sullivan says the halving will kick off a massive equipment buying frenzy in the bitcoin mining sector, driven by a need for modernized, efficient mining hardware as the reward drops. "You're going to see an acceleration on ASIC demand, people rotating into newer generation machines," said Sullivan.

The Big Bitcoin Mining Rig Demand Blowup

ASICs, or Application-Specific Integrated Circuit processors, are the type of chips powering the most modern and specialized mining rigs. The first mining-specific ASIC rigs appeared in 2013, according to CoinDesk, and are solely designed to handle the cryptographic math needed to "mine" bitcoin. ASICs soon supplanted GPUs from Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), which had themselves replaced microprocessors in ordinary, at-home computers. But with every new wave of technology, efficiency remained the goal: more crypto calculations with less energy.

Some of the currently top-rated mining chips and computers come from China-based players, including Bitmain, MicroBT and Cannan (CAN).

The influx of new mining hardware permits miners some flexibility in dealing with their energy costs. Industrial bitcoin mining also considers the cost of electricity in different locations throughout the U.S. "We're taking the most efficient machines and putting them to our highest uptime locations," said Sullivan. "We're then taking our least efficient machines and allocating them to our facilities where we can be much more selective about the power costs." Core Scientific says it currently operates facilities in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, North Dakota and Texas.

Prior bitcoin halvings occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin's next halving appears set to occur later this month.

Bitcoin's halving is a function built into the cryptocurrency from the onset, laid out by reputed creator Satoshi Nakamoto in the original 2008 bitcoin white paper. Bitcoin is "mined" by verifying transactions across the bitcoin network, creating a block that's added to the chain of previous transactions. (This creates the so-called blockchain.) When other bitcoin miners agree that the block is valid, the block becomes a bitcoin that goes to the first miner. Meanwhile, the block is itself used to hash new transactions.

Estimates call for April's halving to reduce mining rewards to 3.125 bitcoin per block, down from 6.25 per block. Because bitcoin mining occurs at a steady rate, halvings tend to occur roughly every four years.

"Mining companies are going to be making very large purchases to ensure the long-term stability of their business and to make sure they can survive through these difficult times of the year," said Sullivan.

Weathering Difficult Times In Bitcoin Mining

Core Scientific is no stranger to lean times in crypto. The Austin, Texas-based bitcoin miner filed for bankruptcy during the 2022 drop in crypto prices popularly called the "crypto winter." Core Scientific continued its mining operations through the bankruptcy, and emerged in January, reclaiming the ticker CORZ.

Core Scientific currently has a market cap of $555.9 million, well below its $4.3 billion market debut via special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, in 2021. The mining company's stock saw its shares spike to a year-to-date high of 4.29 in March before reversing to a low of 2.95 after the company reported its first post-bankruptcy earnings. Core Scientific is unranked in its Computer Software group, although it does hold a Composite Rating of 84, according to IBD Research.

The top publicly traded miners include Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Marathon Digital (MARA).

Core Scientific remains optimistic it can weather the halving and keep its spot as one of the largest bitcoin miners. "We know we'll have an opportunity to refresh our machines post-halving, putting us in a really strong position to continue to grow to 2025," said Sullivan. "We know what it takes from a capital allocation perspective and we know what it means to put cash on the balance sheet to be able to take advantage of bear markets versus being concerned about profitability."

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The Vatican’s new statement on trans rights undercuts its attempts at inclusion

 The Vatican’s new statement on trans rights undercuts its attempts at inclusion

Pope Francis greets bishops during the weekly general audience at St. Peter’s Square in Vatican City on April 10, 2024. Massimo Valicchia/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Li Zhou is a politics reporter at Vox, where she covers Congress and elections. Previously, she was a tech policy reporter at Politico and an editorial fellow at the Atlantic.

A new Vatican document released April 8 details how the Catholic Church approaches human dignity, but it has raised concern among LGBTQ parishioners and their allies about how it describes gender-affirming surgery.

The document, entitled “Dignitas Infinita” (“Infinite Dignity”), was five years in the making and lays out the ways the Vatican believes the inherent dignity that each person possesses can be honored and protected. Though largely in line with positions the Catholic Church has expressed in the past, it’s notable for elevating some of the church’s most conservative views into doctrine — essentially, official church teachings — during a period in which the current pope has been seen as trying to steer the organization in a more progressive, inclusive direction.

Broadly, the document highlights “grave violations” of human dignity, including war, poverty, mistreatment of migrants, and abuse of women. It also lists other perceived threats, including abortion and what the Vatican describes as “gender theory” and “sex change.” In these provisions, the document criticizes gender-affirming procedures and stresses that the Vatican views gender as a clear binary between men and women.

“While Pope Francis has made greater strides in affirming LGBTQ+ Catholics than any of his predecessors, his endorsement of ‘Dignitas Infinita’ will be seen as turning the clock back by transgender individuals, both within and outside the church,” R. Andrew Chesnut, the Bishop Sullivan Chair in Catholic Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University, told Vox.

The release of “Dignitas Infinita” comes amid a larger political, cultural, and social discourse about trans rights and medical care, including a recent UK report on the subject. LGBTQ Catholics and advocates fear, too, that it will worsen a climate in which some governments have enacted laws that attack trans people — including numerous GOP bans on gender-affirming care for children in the US — and be used to fuel more discrimination.

“The document should not be dismissed as simply an abstract theological conversation with few human consequences,” Francis DeBernardo, the executive director of New Way Ministries, an LGBTQ Catholic group, said in a statement. “Rather, the Vatican is again supporting and propagating ideas that lead to real physical harm to transgender, nonbinary, and other LGBTQ+ people.”

The Vatican document challenges attempts at inclusion

Under Pope Francis, the Vatican has sought to lead a more inclusive Catholic Church, including approving blessings for same-sex couples and allowing women to vote in a major bishops’ meeting for the first time.

Francis has also personally made overtures to the trans community, approving the baptizing of trans parishioners and welcoming a group of trans women to a weekly gathering. However, as “Dignitas Infinita” exemplifies, such progress toward inclusivity has been halting, with the church still declining to permit marriage for same-sex couples and barring women from becoming priests.

The document’s treatment of trans people continues this pattern by emphasizing the need to acknowledge every person’s human dignity while offering “limited dignity” to trans people, DeBernardo said.

In particular, it argues that gender-affirming procedures threaten the dignity that a person is born with at conception, claiming that such medical care interferes with “the need to respect the natural order of the human person.” The document also broadly denounces “gender theory,” which includes “argu[ing] that a person’s gender can be different from the sex that person was assigned at birth,” NPR’s Jason DeRose explains.

“That ‘Dignitas Infinita’ rebukes gender transition interventions as a rejection of God’s plan of human life implies that those individuals who have elected to transition ... have violated divine will,” said Chesnut.

Jason Steidl, a professor of religious studies at St. Johns University who specializes in Catholicism, put it more bluntly. “This is the Newsmax version of Catholic theology,” he said.

The Vatican’s statements have been widely lambasted by trans members of the Catholic Church who view them as undermining their experiences and their place in the church. “Transgender people are beloved, intentional creations of God the same as cisgender men and women are,” Michael Sennett, a trans man and practicing Catholic in Massachusetts, told the Associated Press.

Steidl and others, however, see the doctrine as satisfying a more conservative arm of the Catholic Church.

The pope’s announcement in late 2023, for example, that the Vatican would support priests blessing same-sex couples in certain contexts drew ire from numerous clergymen globally. Those opposed to Francis’s more progressive actions included some in Africa, one of the places where the Catholic Church has seen high growth in recent years, who called it “contrary to the will of God.”

According to Steidl, who is also the author of LGBTQ Catholic Ministry, the provisions going after trans people in the Vatican’s document were likely an attempt to appease this segment of the church. “Cardinal Fernandez, the head of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of Faith, had essentially said that they were going to be throwing traditionalists a bone,” Steidl told Vox.

The church doctrine adds to policies attacking trans people

LGBTQ advocates worry the Vatican’s document will only be further ammunition for conservatives in the political and social spheres as they advance discriminatory policies, particularly as political attacks on trans people have surged in recent years.

At least 19 GOP-led state legislatures in the US have passed laws either restricting or outright banning access to gender-affirming care, even though major physician organizations have deemed such care medically necessary. As the number of anti-trans laws has spiked, a report from the National Center for Transgender Equality has documented an increase in homicides of transgender people in the US between November 2022 and November 2023.

European countries are also taking a more restrictive approach to health care for trans people — particularly for minors. Recently, a report commissioned by the United Kingdom’s National Health Service questioned current transition practices in pediatrics and reiterated recommendations to reduce the use of puberty blockers, a treatment the NHS has already stopped offering for minors with gender dysphoria.

LGBTQ advocates are concerned that the Vatican’s document will just add to rhetoric globally that has sought to curtail trans rights.

“This document … tells trans people that they are a threat to the world, that they are a threat to order, to the systems that God has set up,” Steidl told Vox. “Unfortunately, the Vatican is contributing to these movements that seek to hurt trans people, that seek to eliminate them.”

 

Hollywood Guilds Come Out Strong For “Ethical & Transparent” AI Bill From Adam Schiff  

SAG-AFTRA, IATSE the WGA, and even the DGA have united behind a legislative move to put up some new and slightly punitive guardrails around Artificial Intelligence.

“Everything generated by AI ultimately originates from a human creative source, says Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, SAG-AFTRA National Executive Director and Chief Negotiator, of a new bill proposed today by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA). “That’s why human creative content—intellectual property—must be protected. SAG-AFTRA fully supports the Generative AI Copyright Disclosure Act, as this legislation is an important step in ensuring technology serves people and not the other way around,” 

Deep into his race to be California’s new junior Senator, Schiff introduced the Generative AI Copyright Disclosure Act into the 118th Congress (read it here) Tuesday. If passed by the House and Senate and signed by President Joe Biden, the succinct act would require companies and corporations that use copyrighted works in the training of their generative AI systems training datasets to submit a public notice with the Register of Copyrights.

In short, before you put that AI created material out there, you’ve got to pull back the veil and reveal where you scooped up the info and datasets from. Now, with its $5,000 civil penalty for violations, the bill doesn’t exactly hit the tech overlords and studios that hard where it counts.

However, with the fears and harsh realities that AI itself generates among below-the-line workers and creators, the fact is the introduction of the legislation alone sees Schiff tossing some blue meat to his base. In a Senate bid that is his to lose against a Republican challenger he promoted, Schiff, who is commonly known as the Congressman from Hollywood for the number of studios in and around his Burbank district, is putting an issue of vital importance to unions and guild members on the table.

The use and implications of AI was a very big part of last year’s strikes by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA. Despite the handwringing of those who predicted it would sink any deal, protections around AI for guild members ended up being a major part of the agreements the scribes and the actors came to with the studios and streamers.

Now with the long anticipated introduction of Schiff’s new bill , leadership is responding again.

“This bill is an important first step in addressing the unprecedented and unauthorized use of copyrighted materials to train generative AI systems,” states WGA West chief Meredith Stiehm. “Greater transparency and guardrails around AI are necessary to protect writers and other creators.”

Stiehm’s East Coast partner, WGA East president Lisa Takeuchi Cullen added: “The Generative AI Copyright Disclosure Act is an important piece of legislation that will ensure companies use this new and rapidly advancing technology in ethical and transparent ways. Given the scope and potential threat of AI, enforceable regulations are urgently needed to keep companies from implementing this technology in the shadows, without people’s consent or knowledge.”

Schiff’s bill follows up on the momentum began by President Biden’s Executive Order on AI from last October and the subsequent three-pillar strategy Vice President Kamala Harris and the administration rolled out late last month.

On a state level, there are two bills moving through the Assembly in Sacramento that also hope to curb AI’s reach and power, especially in relation to Hollywood.

Currently in the early stages of the legislative process, the SAG-AFTA backed and MPA opposed AB 2602 would cement protections for performers that digital recreations of them or their work could only be used with permission and compensation. Another bill, AB 1836, would put contextual and creatives limits on the AI or digital use of deceased performers, from a Sidney Poitier to a Marilyn Monroe, Elvis, a Heath Ledger and many more. At its core, AB 1836 would make use of a dead star’s likeness and performance only allowable if the 21st century use is within the context of what the performer actually did when they were alive – – AKA no Jane Wyman and Marilyn tag-team wrestling.

As Adam Schiff said today of the Generative AI Copyright Disclosure Act: “This is about respecting creativity in the age of AI and marrying technological progress with fairness.”