‘It’s Clearly Bleak’: Stocks Notch Longest Losing Streak in Months

A rally at the start of the year has given way to worries on Wall Street about economics and geopolitics.

Stocks suffered their longest losing streak of the year, as geopolitical turmoil rattled Wall Street and investors slashed their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon.

The S&P 500 fell 0.9 percent on Friday, its sixth consecutive decline, marking its worst run since October 2022.

The slide dragged the S&P 500 down by just over 3 percent for the week, a third straight weekly decline. By that measure, it is the longest weekly losing streak for the index since September, when concerns over rising government debt and a potential government shutdown compounded worries about the effects of high interest rates.

Those fears dissipated toward the end of last year as inflation cooled and investors began to bet that the Fed would soon cut rates, prompting a ferocious stock rally in the first three months of 2024.

But this month, worries that stubborn inflation would lead the Fed to keep rates high have returned, compounded by the widening conflict in the Middle East, with Israel striking Iran early on Friday.

“It’s clearly bleak,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities.

Investors have pulled roughly $21 billion out of funds that invest in U.S. stocks over the two weeks through Wednesday, according to data from EPFR Global, which tracks fund flows. That compares to an inflow of around $80 billion for the year through early April. And the unease is not just apparent in the stock market.

U.S. government bond yields, which underpin interest rates for a wide variety of loans, have been rising. The average rate on 30-year mortgages, the most popular home loan in the United States, rose above 7 percent on Thursday for the first time this year.

The dollar is also markedly higher, putting pressure on countries that import goods from the United States and issue dollar-denominated debt. And oil prices, stoked by geopolitical tensions, are up more than 13 percent since the start of the year.

“There is nothing that looks good right now,” Mr. Brenner said.

Recent reports showing hotter-than-expected inflation have altered investors’ forecasts for the Fed, which has kept its key rate near a two-decade high. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event in Washington on Tuesday.

Economists at Société Générale no longer expect the Fed to cut rates this year. BNP Paribas and Wells Fargo economists have also dialed down their expectations for cuts.

Traders in futures markets, which allow investors to bet on where interest rates are headed, are wagering on one, and perhaps two, quarter-point cuts by the end of the year. At the start of the year, traders were expecting six cuts over that period.

At first, the shift appeared to be welcomed by stock investors. A strong economy, all else equal, is good for the stock market, and while some inflation data had started to buck the trend earlier this year it wasn’t enough to disrupt the broader cooling that took hold in 2023. But recent inflation reports have continued to disappointed investors and economists and become harder to ignore.

John Williams, the president of the New York Fed, said this week that it was possible that another increase, rather than a cut, to rates might be warranted if inflation remained sticky, even if that wasn’t what he considered the most likely scenario. Other officials have noted that the Fed may have to wait until much later this year, or even 2025, to begin easing rates.

So far, worries have yet to intensify to the point of threatening the strength of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 has fallen 5.5 percent this month, it remains more than 4 percent higher for the year.

And a recent survey of fund managers around the world by Bank of America showed the most optimism since January 2022, with respondents expecting global growth to accelerate. The biggest risk, according to the respondents, is a rise in inflation that could keep interest rates elevated, squeezing growth abroad and at home.

 Dubai flooding hobbles major airport's operations as "historic weather event" brings torrential rains to UAE

Dubai, United Arab Emirates — The desert nation of the United Arab Emirates attempted to dry out Wednesday from the heaviest rain ever recorded there after a deluge flooded out Dubai International Airport, disrupting travel through the world's busiest airfield for international travel. The state-run WAM news agency called the rain Tuesday "a historic weather event" that surpassed "anything documented since the start of data collection in 1949." 

The rains began late Monday, soaking the sands and roadways of Dubai with some 0.79 inches of rain, according to meteorological data collected at Dubai International Airport. The storms intensified around 9 a.m. local time Tuesday and continued throughout the day, dumping more rain and hail onto the overwhelmed city.

Flooding impacts Dubai International Airport

By the end of Tuesday, more than 5.59 inches of rainfall had soaked Dubai over 24 hours. An average year sees just 3.73 inches of rain fall at Dubai International Airport, a hub for the long-haul carrier Emirates.

At the airport, standing water lapped on taxiways as aircraft landed. Arrivals were halted Tuesday night and passengers struggled to reach terminals through the floodwater covering surrounding roads.

TOPSHOT-UAE-BAHRAIN-OMAN-WEATHER-FLOOD 
Motorisits drive along a flooded street following heavy rains in Dubai, early on April 17, 2024.

The airport said in a series of social media posts that all operations were halted for about 25 minutes on Tuesday afternoon and that all arrivals would be diverted after that "until the weather conditions improve." Late Wednesday morning, the airport and the flagship carrier Emirates were still warning travelers not to come to the airport unless absolutely necessary, saying all flight check-in was still suspended.

"Flights continue to be delayed and diverted. Please check your flight status directly with your airline," the airport said in a tweet. "We are working hard to recover operations as quickly as possible in very challenging conditions." 

One couple, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity in a country with strict laws that criminalize critical speech, called the situation at the airport "absolute carnage."

"You cannot get a taxi. There's people sleeping in the Metro station. There's people sleeping in the airport," the man said Wednesday.

They ended up getting a taxi to near their home some 18 miles away, but floodwater on the road stopped them. A bystander helped them over a highway barrier with their carry-on luggage, the bottles of gin they picked up from a duty-free store clinking away.

Passengers wait at a flight connection desk at Dubai International Airport, April 17, 2024, amid flight delays and cancelations caused by flash flooding brought by a historic rain storm.

Paul Griffiths, the airport's CEO, acknowledged continued issues with flooding Wednesday morning, saying every place an aircraft could be safely parked was taken. Some aircraft had been diverted to Al Maktoum International Airport at Dubai World Central, the city-state's second airfield.

"It remains an incredibly challenging time. In living memory, I don't think anyone has ever seen conditions like it," Griffiths told the state-owned talk radio station Dubai Eye. "We are in uncharted territory, but I can assure everyone we are working as hard as we possibly can to make sure our customers and staff are looked after."

Did "cloud-seeding" contribute?

Rain also fell in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. However, the rains were acute across the UAE. One reason may have been "cloud seeding," in which small planes flown by the government go through clouds burning special salt flares. Those flares can increase precipitation.

Several reports quoted meteorologists at the National Center for Meteorology as saying they flew six or seven cloud-seeding flights before the rains. The center did not immediately respond to questions Wednesday, though flight-tracking data analyzed by the AP showed one aircraft affiliated with the UAE's cloud-seeding efforts flew around the country Sunday.

The UAE, which relies heavily on energy-hungry desalination plants to provide water, conducts cloud seeding in part to increase its dwindling, limited groundwater.

Flooding closes schools across UAE

Schools across the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms, largely shut ahead of the storm and government employees were largely working remotely if they could. Many workers stayed home as well, though some ventured out, with the unfortunate ones stalling out their vehicles in deeper-than-expected water covering some roads.

Cars are seen on a flooded street during a rainstorm in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, April 16, 2024.

Authorities sent tanker trucks out into the streets and highways to pump away the water. Water poured into some homes, forcing people to bail out their houses.

The country's hereditary rulers offered no overall damage or injury information for the nation, as some people slept in their flooded vehicles Tuesday night. In Ras al-Khaimah, the country's northernmost emirate, police said a 70-year-old man died when his vehicle was swept away by floodwater.

Fujairah, an emirate on the UAE's eastern coast, saw the heaviest rainfall Tuesday with 5.7 inches falling there.

Authorities canceled school and the government instituted remote work again for Wednesday.

Rain is unusual in the UAE, an arid, Arabian Peninsula nation, but occurs periodically during the cooler winter months. Many roads and other areas lack drainage given the lack of regular rainfall, causing flooding.

Meanwhile in neighboring Oman, a sultanate that rests on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, at least 19 people were killed in heavy rains in recent days, according to a statement Wednesday from the country's National Committee for Emergency Management. That includes some 10 schoolchildren swept away in a vehicle with an adult, prompting condolences from rulers across the region.

 Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 posts a fourth losing day: Live updates

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. 

Stock futures traded near the flatline on Wednesday evening after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite logged a fourth straight day of losses.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.04%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were little changed.

In extended trading, credit bureau Equifax declined more than 9% on disappointing second-quarter guidance that missed Wall Street estimates. Shares of Las Vegas Sands slipped nearly 3% after first-quarter revenue narrowly beat analysts' forecasts.

Tech stocks struggled on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite registering their fourth consecutive losing session. Nvidia pulled both indexes lower, as the artificial intelligence play dropped nearly 4%. The 30-stock Dow fell for its seventh session in eight.

Wednesday's market pullback adds to a more difficult second quarter on Wall Street. All three major indexes are lower so far in April, in stark contrast to the stronger-than-expected market performance seen in the first quarter. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have also closed below their respective 50-day moving averages.

"The initial support for the S&P on that breakdown was 5000 or just below," JPMorgan head of technical strategy Jason Hunter said on "Closing Bell" Wednesday. "Now the question is: Does a bounce develop from there … and if it does, is it able to get back above the breakdown levels — the 50-day moving average, the area where it gapped down from?" He said he's watching the 5,150 to 5,200 level of the S&P 500 as key resistance.

On the economic front, initial jobless claims data will be due on Thursday morning, and the existing home sales report for March is also out.

Earnings season also heats up with Alaska Air Group and KeyCorp reporting results before the bell, followed by Netflix in the afternoon.

BITCOIN

 

BITCOIN

‘Overheated’ Bitcoin market is cooling – Time to bet on BTC’s price again?

There is scope for fresh longs entering the market, paving way for a sustained push north on the charts…

🔸Drops in funding rates, OI indicated a shakeout of over-leveraged bullish traders

🔸Market mood changed from one of extreme greed to greed

Bitcoin [BTC] retreated from its previous all-time highs (ATH) this week, dropping by 3.23% to the $67k zone, according to CoinMarketCap. Right now, bullish market participants are eagerly awaiting a rebound to $73k – A level last hit in mid-March.

However, while the king coin languishes on the charts, some of its market indicators are still flashing green.

Funding rates normalize

According to J. A. Maartunn, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s funding rates dropped sharply over the week. In fact, at press time, it was at levels which he deemed as “neutral.”

Typically, drops in funding rates indicate a shakeout of over-leveraged bullish traders. The funding rates soared when BTC hit its new ATH mid-March, a sign of an overheated market. However, with funding rates normalizing, and prices still around $67k, there is now scope for fresh longs entering the market, paving the way for a sustained push north.

The 11% decline in Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures over the week, as per AMBCrypto’s analysis of Coinglass‘ data, also reflected the exit of over-leveraged long positions.

Euphoria starts to subside

The cool-off was further demonstrated by the shift in market mood from “extreme greed” to ” greed” over the week, as per the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Typically, when the market becomes extremely greedy, it means it’s due for a correction.

Another bullish trigger for Bitcoin?

What could work in Bitcoin’s favor is that bankrupt crypto-lender Genesis finished selling more than $2 billion of its Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) shares. Genesis was primarily driving outflows from GBTC in recent weeks, resulting in Bitcoin’s correction.

However, with reprieve from Genesis’ end, GBTC outflows could slow down significantly, allowing other ETFs to offset this with high inflows, potentially leading to Bitcoin’s rise again.

 

RBI defers implementing FX derivatives rules to May 3

RBI had tightened rules on currency derivatives with the aim of curbing speculative trading. This would offer some short-term relief as market participants feared that the implementation of the new rules could dent trading volumes significantly in the segment.

MUMBAI - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has deferred the implementation of currency derivative regulations by a month to May 3. This is in view of the feedback received from the market and the recent developments, the central bank said in a release.

RBI had tightened rules on currency derivatives to curb speculative trading.

This would offer some short-term relief as market participants feared that the implementation of the new rules could dent trading volumes significantly in the segment.

In January, RBI issued a circular stating that forex derivative contracts involving the rupee can be used only for hedging contracted exposure.

The central bank had directed stock exchanges to inform users that trading in currency derivatives up to $100 million equivalent across all currency pairs can be done only if they have exposure to a valid underlying contracted exposure.

While the implementation has been deferred, RBI reiterated that its policy approach on forex derivatives remains unchanged.

“It is emphasised that the regulatory framework for ETCDs (exchange traded currency derivatives) has remained consistent over the years and that there is no change in the RBI’s policy approach,” the central bank said.

The revised rules still align with the RBI’s broader foreign exchange management policy as the central bank is taking measures to ensure no major swings in the rupee in the run-up to the inclusion of India’s bond in global indexes from June.

The rupee has been one of the least volatile currencies among emerging market currencies globally.

Taking Stock: Sensex, Nifty close at new highs, all eyes on RBI policy

 Taking Stock: Sensex, Nifty close at new highs, all eyes on RBI policy

 The Sensex and Nifty also hit fresh all-time highs of 74,501.73 and 22,619 early in the day but pared some of the gains as the session progressed.

The Indian benchmark indices climbed to record highs, squandered some of the gains but still managed to close in the green in a volatile session of trade on April 4, a day ahead of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy announcement.

The Sensex ended 350.81 points, or 0.47 percent, higher at 74,227.63 and the Nifty 80 points, or 0.36 percent, at 22,514.70, their best close ever

Market started the session gap-up at record highs with the Sensex hitting 74,501.73 and the Nifty 22,619 but they erased the gains in the initial hours to gyrate between gains and losses throughout the session.

Top Nifty gainers were HDFC Bank, Eicher Motors, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra and Titan Company, while losers were ONGC, Shriram Finance, Adani Ports, BPCL and Bharti Airtel.

Among sectors, bank, power, information technology were up 0.5-1 percent, while the PSU bank and oil & gas index were down 0.7-1.6 percent.

The BSE midcap index ended flat, while the smallcap index added 0.5 percent.

Among individual stocks, a volume spike of more than 300 percent was seen in Dabur India, Ipca Lab, Exide Industries.

A long build-up was seen in Ipca Lab, Vedanta and Bandhan Bank, while a short build-up was seen in Dabur India, Colgate Palmolive and HPCL.

More than 200 stocks touched thier 52-week high including Aditya Birla Capital, Adani Power, Ajmera Realty, Anup Enginerring, Avenue Supermarts, Canara Bank, GE Power India, Genesys International, Glenmark Pharma, Grasim Industries, Indian Hotels, Ipca Labs, JSW Energy, Jubilant Pharmova, KEC International, L&T Technology, Laurus Labs, M&M, Muthoot Finance, NTPC, Quess Corp, Reliance Power, Shriram Finance, UNO Minda, Vardhman Textile, Vedanta, Voltas, among others.

Markets traded volatile for yet another session and gained nearly half a percent. After the initial uptick, Nifty slipped sharply lower in the early hours however strength in heavyweights, especially from banking and IT majors, helped the index to recoup losses and inch higher. Eventually, Nifty settled at 22,514.65 level; up by 0.4%. Meanwhile, a mixed trend continued on the sectoral front wherein FMCG and energy closed in the red. The buoyancy continued on the broader front wherein smallcap gained nearly half a percent.

We expect the prevailing tone to continue however the pace of advance would largely depend upon the performance of banking and IT majors. Participants should continue with the “buy on dips” approach and focus more on stock selection.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at 40 Wall Street after a pre-trial hearing at Manhattan criminal court

 Former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at 40 Wall Street after a pre-trial hearing at Manhattan criminal court

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,120 level, a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

Nifty 50 formed a reasonable positive candle on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow.

The Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Tuesday following mixed global market cues.

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,120 level, a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

This is a holiday truncated week and the trading volumes are expected to be lower with limited market cues. However, volatility may remain high as we approach the March F&O expiry and the financial year-end.

On Friday, the domestic equity benchmarks closed higher for the third consecutive session.

The Sensex gained 190.75 points to close at 72,831.94, while the Nifty 50 settled 84.80 points, or 0.39%, higher at 22,096.75.

Nifty 50 formed a reasonable positive candle on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow. 

“The market is facing strong resistance around 22,200 - 22,300 levels and a decisive break above this hurdle could open the next round of sharp upmove in the market. The Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small positive candle with a long lower shadow. The weekly support of the 10-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has been regained after the intra-week downside violation at 21,950. This is a positive indication," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

He believes the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. A sharp move above the hurdle of 22,200 - 22,300 levels could pull Nifty towards new all time highs around 22,550 levels.

Also Read: Indian stock market: 7 key things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, geopolitical tensions to oil prices

Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:

Nifty OI Data

According to Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, options data shows some improvement, with the put-to-call ratio rising from oversold levels to 1.23. 

“However, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) maintain a high level of short exposure in index futures, currently at 65%. This elevated short positioning suggests there’s still potential for a short-covering rally," Meena said.

Rahul Ghose, CEO, Hedged.in noted that the Bank Nifty index was seen having massive put writing all the way from 46,000 up to the 47,000 strike

The bullish bias in fact is seen right up to the April expiry where April ITM or In the money put writing was seen on Friday. Nifty on the other hand continues to be in a small range as per Open Interest (OI) data with the next move happening only above the 22,300 mark or below the 21,700 mark on the downside," Ghose said.

Nifty 50 Prediction

The Nifty 50 index continued with its follow-through up move on March 22 and closed the day higher by 84 points amidst volatility. 

“Nifty witnessed two days of recovery following a doji formation on the daily chart, indicating a bullish reversal. Moreover, the Nifty has reclaimed the critical 55-day exponential moving average. However, Nifty needs to cross over 22,100 to witness a clear rally towards the all-time high of 22,525," said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities.

On the lower end, 22,950 might remain a strong support for the index. Below this level, the index might enter a consolidation phase, he added.

Bank Nifty Prediction

The Bank Nifty index rose 179 points to settle at 46,864 on March 22.

“The Bank Nifty index saw robust buying from lower levels but struggled to breach the resistance at 47,000. Immediate support lies at 46,600-46,500, and as long as the index holds above this level, the outlook remains bullish. A breakthrough above 47,000 is anticipated to trigger sharp short-covering rallies towards the 48,000 mark," De said.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.